Anticipation Over Reaction: A Forecast-Based Pilot in Lebanon led by the Lebanese Red Cross

Project objective

The overall objective of the project is to enable the Lebanese Red Cross (LRC) to anticipate for extreme events by implementing Early (Anticipatory) Actions in high-risk areas based on a forecast and impact assessment in order to effectively help vulnerable communities to be prepared and to protect themselves and their livelihoods before the materialization of an extreme event. Winter storms and Heatwaves were selected as priority hazards for LRC since they were identified as recurrent forecastable climate risks, with enough lead time for warning and early response; this also comes at a time when the intensity and frequency of both winter storms and heatwaves have increased due to climate change. The potential of effectiveness of these anticipatory plans are very high in Lebanon, especially as LRC has previous experience with winter storms, including Early Actions.

Project description

Lebanon is exposed to numerous natural and man-made hazards resulting in devastating effects impacting the Lebanese population. As such, the availability of effective disaster risk reduction measures is crucial to ensure proper planning followed by the implementation of effective Early Action and response measures to minimize losses and damages.

The LRC runs a comprehensive and advanced Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) program and has increasingly strengthened its position as a key player on DRR in Lebanon over the course of the past years. In fact, from 2020 to 2025, the compounding crises has shown the positive impact of long-term DRR investments and initiatives in crisis and disaster risk management and support for local and national authorities, even through extreme disasters such as war, pandemics, and refugee influx.

The LRC is a key response actor across Lebanon and has established a constructive and collaborative relationship with governmental disaster risk management actors. The interventions executed by the LRC go beyond the response procedures implemented following crises and disasters to include Anticipatory measures and the implementation of Early Actions to mitigate the impact of disasters on local communities. Accordingly, the need for systematized and effective forecast-based actions has been identified by the LRC, which will be jointly developed with relevant authorities and stakeholders. In coordination and the support from the German Red Cross, the Forecast-based Financing (FbF) in Lebanon project was launched. The aim is that LRC in coordination with relevant stakeholders is able to assist highly vulnerable communities to prepare for and protect themselves from extreme events before they occur.

The feasibility study, which explored the feasibility for an FbF system for weather and non-weather related hazards, was carried out by involving all the relevant actors including a scientific institution. Winter storms and heatwaves were the selected hazard to be tackled since they have been shown to cause the highest impact, are forecastable with enough lead time, and are in line with LRCs experience and interest.

The project seeks to put in place Early Warning and Early Action Systems (EWAS) that enable the LRC, in partnership with government institutions and other humanitarian actors, to carry out predetermined actions based on winter storm and heatwave triggers and reduce their impacts on target populations. A simplified Early Action Protocol (sEAP) for winter storms has been developed, tested in a simulation exercise, evaluated and is under the process of validation. LRC is also in the process of developing a heatwave EAP to respond to heatwave forecasts in timely and efficient coordinated Early Actions, in addition to building the resilience of the communities that are most exposed and at risk of damage due to these forecastable climate-exacerbated hazards. The LRC has worked with relevant national and regional stakeholders to advocate and integrate FbF and Anticipation in their disaster risk management, contingency planning and Early Warning Early Action Systems.

The Anticipation over Reaction project aims, with these steps, to enhance Anticipatory Action on a national level, reducing the losses and damages of at least winter storms and heatwaves to lives and livelihoods, while also enhancing and supporting national early warning systems.