Welthungerhilfe Anticipatory Humanitarian Action Facility (WAHAFA) in Kenya

Developing people-centred and locally led anticipatory action plans for droughts and floods

Welthungerhilfe (WHH) has been working with communities in Kenya that are at risk of being affected by drought to take steps to reduce the negative impact on people’s food security through anticipatory action.

Based on previous experiences and lessons from our forecast-based action (FbA) projects, WHH Kenya, in partnership with local stakeholders and its partner the Pastoralist Community Initiative and Development Assistance (PACIDA), will continue to support and further development community-led Anticipatory Action Plans (AAPs) for droughts and floods in Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana Counties through a scale-up project as part of Welthungerhilfe’s Anticipatory Humanitarian Facility (WAHAFA) programme.

WAHAFA programme at Welthungerhilfe

Under the WAHAFA programme, WHH in Kenya and its local partners participated in capacity sharing opportunities and are developing trigger-based AAPs for drought and flood in high-risk areas in Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana Counties.

Reduce the risk of drought- and flood-induced food insecurity

The AAPs aim to reduce the impact of a predicted drought and flooding on food security for the most vulnerable and at-risk communities. Based on in-depth analyses, several local AAPs will be developed and connected to a trigger-based financing mechanism that is informed by historical data, hydrometeorological forecasts, seasonal observations, risk and vulnerability indicators as well as traditional knowledge.

The drought model that triggers the roll-out of the AAP integrates various indices, classification systems and considers existing multi-agency initiatives in decision making. The Vegetation Cover Index (VCI), Forage Conditions Index (FCI), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) will be applied to monitor risk data and issue timely alerts. This comprehensive approach ensures that interventions are initiated before the impacts of drought become pronounced on communities and synergized with existing early warning systems. WHH uses a predictive dashboard for FCI generated from the PLEWS system of Texas A&M University and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in partnership with the NDMA. The KMD provides forecasts, including SPI forecasts. The IPC process in Kenya is hosted within the NDMA. VCI is a monitoring indicator managed by the NDMA. VCI and FCI are monitored bi-weekly using satellite data to capture real-time changes in vegetation and forage conditions. SPI is monitored monthly to observe precipitation patterns and identify emerging drought conditions, while the IPC is assessed quarterly to evaluate food security status and potential risks.

The flood model that triggers the roll-out of the AAPs is the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS).

The AAPs will be addressing specific coping strategies, to minimize the drought- and flood induced damages and losses of at-risk households. The AAPs include the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders involved, as well as particular anticipatory actions which are specifically tailored to the regional context, lead times and severity of drought and flood. The AAPs are designed to be rolled out immediately after the drought or flood trigger model has been triggered. Depending on the lead time and the threshold reached, anticipatory actions range from awareness-raising activities, anticipatory cash distributions, promotion of health services and nutritional commodity uptake for children under five, pregnant and lactating women, people living with disabilities, and school-going children. Further anticipatory actions involve the distribution of livestock feeds (high protein range cubes), rehabilitation and maintenance of strategic water sources, and provision of livestock veterinary services (deworming and vaccination), relocation of livestock and households’ belongings, relocation of would-be affected households/populations to safe grounds (in case of an anticipated flooding extreme event). Anticipatory actions will be activated depending on the timing of the trigger and the threshold reached.

Anticipatory action in an NGO environment

Our vision is to strengthen forecast-based action and anticipatory action initiatives among German non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and local humanitarian partners in sub-Sahara Africa.

With this objective in mind and based on our success from our pilot projects in Madagascar, Zimbabwe and Kenya, WHH has established the WAHAFA and received build and fuel funding from the GFFO to expand its own anticipatory action programme and to enable interested German NGOs to kick-start their anticipatory project or deepen their understanding and knowledge of anticipatory action through exchange opportunities and know-how transfer.

Through sub-projects, WAHAFA supports access to essential key pillars of anticipatory action: capacity, build and fuel. Partner organizations will be invited to join the capacity sharing advances (capacity pillar) and receive budgetary and conceptual support to develop and maintain people-centred anticipatory action mechanism, including the development of locally led AAPs (build pillar). Once validated, these AAPs are automatically linked to guaranteed funding of pre-agreed anticipatory actions in case of an early warning and trigger activation (fuel pillar).

To ensure the sustainability of anticipatory action mechanisms within NGO settings, critical factors such as establishing trigger models, continuous maintenance, monitoring, and organizational readiness must be addressed. It is crucial to foster formalized collaboration among AAP stakeholders, emphasizing local institutionalization, community engagement, and accountability to stakeholders.

In our WAHAFA programme, we place communities, local partners and stakeholders at the forefront of efforts. To achieve this, WHH has developed an AAP custodianship approach, encouraging German NGOs to collaborate with local partners. The local partners take a leading role in developing the AAPs by contributing their unique skills and knowledge to the process. The custodians engage with actors at various levels, from community members to local and national governments. WAHAFA ensures contextualized AAPs development by providing guidance for community-based approaches. Our approach creates a space for local actors to participate in designing processes and ensures that AAPs include anticipatory actions that are meaningful, relevant to the local context, and garner high acceptance and buy-in from people at all levels. Ultimately, this makes the entire process more sustainable and aligned with the needs of populations at risk from hazards.

EAP activation in Marsabit in 2022

To mitigate impacts of a drought-induced food insecurity, WHH and PACIDA, with funds from Start Network, supported 1,060 drought-affected households in Maikona and Kargi wards of Marsabit County though anticipatory cash distributions and dissemination of early warning messages. Disbursements were made in two cycles of equal amounts through Safaricom's M-Pesa mobile money transfer between July and September 2022.