Anticipatory Action Task Force policy brief: Anticipatory action in fragile and conflict-affected settings

The humanitarian system is at an inflection point. Nearly 300 million people worldwide require assistance, the majority in fragile and conflict-affected settings where crises are increasingly frequent, complex, and deadly. Meanwhile, aid budgets are shrinking, with humanitarian funding projected to decline by up to 45 per cent by the end of 2025 compared with 2023. This widening gap has accelerated calls for a more efficient, equitable, and risk-informed humanitarian model, as envisioned in the Humanitarian Reset.

This brief from the Anticipatory Action Task Force argues for anticipatory action not only being possible in fragile and conflict-affected settings, but being essential. Acting before predictable shocks prevents crises from escalating, protects fragile development gains, and reduces emergency response costs. With sustained investment, robust data systems, and strong partnerships, AA can transform humanitarian response in the world’s most vulnerable contexts.